Can Travelers take the scary out of my picks?

Another week, another set of picks to submit... the cycle is vicious, but I do it for you, dear reader, I swear. It's Travelers Championship week which means will get a healthy dose of Bubba Watson shots and clever insurance commercials. On to the picks...

Last week, I tried out a new system for picking winners by looking at the opening Vegas odds for the eventual winner of the previous 24 tournaments played during the year. I then took the average of those numbers and selected players that fell into that range. Here's how the results turned out:

Picks (Actual US Open Finish)
1. Geoff Ogilvy (CUT)
2. Adam Scott (CUT)
3. Graeme McDowell (T14)
4. Brandt Snedeker (T11)
5. Paul Casey (CUT)
6. Jim Furyk (CUT)
7. Retief Goosen (T24)
8.Charl Schwartzel (T9)
9. Ian Poulter (CUT)
10. Matteo Manassero (T54)

As you can see, the results weren't very good. I'm not going to completely scrap the formula because I think trying it first on a major championship was probably a bad test model and in retrospect I probably should have taken The Masters odds and only used those. I'll try it again this week and see how it turns out. Like I've told you a hundred times... don't use this column as cliff notes at the sports book if you're looking to get paid. But if you do, and you win, chip me off 10%.

Travelers Championship Picks
1. Zach Johnson
2. Martin Laird
3. David Toms
4. Webb Simpson
5. Ian Poulter
6. Padraig Harrington
7. Ben Crane
8. Jim Furyk
9. Aaron Baddeley
10. Vijay Singh

Tee Times  | Match Ups Game  |  Odds

McIlroy will not be joining the PGA Tour
McIlroy's manager Chubby Chandler said, "He’ll play more, but he won’t play (the obligatory) 15 though. I think that’s too difficult. He might play a couple more . . . and if they relax the rule, he might get up to 12 or 13, but he will not play 15.” (

According to Chandler, we have the FedEx Open to thank for McIlroy not taking membership on the Tour. Chandler: “It’s the FedEx that kills it, and they have a big season after the FedEx.”

It's not going to kill the PGA Tour if McIlroy doesn't play the full 15 tournaments needed for membership. It hasn't killed them that Lee Westwood is not a member either. However, for players who are members of the European Tour, especially big names like McIlroy and Westwood, there should be less demand on their time, say 12 tournaments instead of 15 for membership. There's no question the FedEx Cup is a grind at the end of the year and until it becomes a marque event to fans on the Tour, guys like McIlroy and Westwood will be just fine with coming over for the high-end tournaments throughout the year.

You can hardly blame them.

Woods out of AT&T National
Tiger Woods will not play the AT&T National tournament next week. Woods tweeted, "Doctor’s orders: sitting out the #attnational. I'll be in Philly to support the event. Feeling stronger every day, but not 100%."

Many may see this as a bad sign for the tournament, but I like the decision. Woods is doing something he has previously never done until recently -- listen to his doctors. It's his only chance to regain the prominence he once had.