It comes down to one tournament to crown the FedEx Cup champion in 2011. Though Justin Rose impressively won the BMW Championship at Cog Hill by two shots, finishing at -13, many other golfers consider themselves winners after the third FedEx Cup tournament.

Technically, there are 30 winners following the BMW, each of which has a chance to win a cool $10 million should enough things go right at the TOUR Championship. Realistically, five have an above average shot at becoming the fifth champion.

The Fortunate Five: Win the TOUR Championship and you win the FedEx Cup...

1. Webb Simpson - Simpson has won two tournaments in the past five weeks and added a Top 5 finish at the BMW to his resume. No golfer is playing more consistent than Simpson right now and he’s the biggest threat at the TOUR Championship. He may be a little wet behind the ears, but he hasn’t shown it in the second half of this PGA Tour year.

2. Dustin Johnson - He’s been known as a golfer unable to put all the pieces together to win big tournaments, especially on Sunday, but he’s shown flashes that those miscues are behind him now. He had a horrid BMW Championship, finishing +14 with 23 bogeys, but luckily that tournament looks more like a blip on the radar than the norm. He won The Barclays, finished second at the British Open and has had a few middle-of-the-pack rounds, but he can’t be counted out. Johnson is a golfer who tends to bounce back strong after less-than-great finishes.

3. Justin Rose - Clearly Rose is hitting some hot clubs right now after handily winning the BMW. He also tied for sixth at The Barclays, but other than that he’s had a very unspectacular year. Fortunately for Rose, he’s putting together his golf game at the right time. That doesn’t mean he’s a huge threat, but he is a threat, nonetheless. Rose will decide how big of one he is this weekend.

4. Luke Donald - So far so good for Donald, as he’s finished T18 at The Barclays, T3 at Deutsche Bank and 4th at the BMW. Donald is showing the same consistent play that earned him a third place finish in 2010. He finished 7th at the TOUR Championship last year, but there is always an air around Donald that smells of potential victory. I wouldn’t be the least bit surprised if Donald won this weekend and the overall FedEx Cup.

5. Matt Kuchar - Kuchar gives you the same feeling Donald does. He’s always in it until he proves otherwise. He finished second at The Barclays and didn’t break to Top 20 in either of the other two FedEx Cup tournaments. With one victory and 10 Top 10 finishes in 2011, keep an eye on Kuchar this weekend.

Where my Top 5 Picks are heading into the TOUR Championship...

1. Stricker, 12th
2. Mickelson, 14th
3. Donald, 4th
4. Watney, 7th
5. Choi, 13th

Not looking great for me to nail of these picks but the Donald and Watney picks have a great chance of happening (though they could finish higher). It would take a miracle for Stricker to win and Mickelson to end up second, but we’ll see how it plays out. For some reason, this group of picks has been my best all year. At least they’re still in contention heading into the finale. Not having the option to pick Tiger Woods probably helped, but I learned my lesson there any way (I think).